An inquiry into potential tampering with temperature sensors at the Paris airport to influence online betting outcomes has brought attention to the rising trend of climate-related bets. Several accounts on the online betting platform Polymarket scored significant winnings when temperatures surged by 5 degrees Celsius in a single day earlier this month. This incident has sparked discussions about the implications of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where users can place bets on climate-related events such as hurricane intensity or the hottest year on record in 2026.
Experts interviewed by CBC News suggest that weather betting could contribute to advancements in climate science and has the potential to sway individuals with climate change skepticism. Moran Cerf, a neuroscience and business professor at Columbia University in New York, conducted a study on the effects of participating in prediction markets on individuals’ perceptions of climate change. Participants in the study placed bets on various climate events and were surveyed before and after, revealing that engaging in these markets increased awareness and concern about climate change, potentially even altering the views of climate change skeptics.
Despite the increasing frequency of climate-related disasters, climate skepticism persists. A poll by the Angus Reid Institute in January 2025 found that nearly a quarter of Canadians doubt that climate change is predominantly caused by human activities, with an additional nine percent questioning the existence of climate change altogether.
Cerf emphasized that climate change poses challenges that exploit cognitive weaknesses, as some impacts like rising sea levels and food system collapses occur over long timelines and are more acutely felt in developing nations distant from North America. Prediction markets offer a way to shorten the feedback loop by providing real-time information and immediate consequences through betting.
Prediction markets operate differently from traditional gambling establishments, allowing users to trade shares based on the likelihood of specific outcomes rather than betting against the house. Mark Roulston, a climate scientist at the University of Lancaster in the U.K., is leading a project that involves university research teams in prediction markets to enhance climate modeling accuracy without requiring teams to wager real money.
Roulston envisions prediction markets as a tool for aggregating expertise and improving forecasting accuracy, with potential applications in insurance risk calculations and scientific research funding. While short-term binary options are prohibited in Canada, Wealthsimple recently obtained approval to offer certain types of prediction markets focusing on economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends.
Concerns have been raised about the impact of short-term climate bets on raising climate awareness and the potential for data manipulation to affect the credibility of these platforms. Cerf cautioned that the primary goal of such platforms should be education rather than enticing users to bet, emphasizing the importance of fostering genuine learning about climate change.