Ever since the rise of Narendra Modi on the national scene in 2014, his leadership has attracted voters to the BJP on a considerable scale.
The electoral strategy of the BJP (and the NDA) in the 2024 polls was to make Modi’s leadership the face of their campaign.
However, the opposition alliance consciously did not declare a Prime Ministerial face. The CSDS-Lokniti data indicate the possible impact of the leadership factor in shaping the electoral outcome.
FADING POPULARITY
Modi remained in the lead as voters’ choice to become Prime Minister. A little over four in 10 respondents (41 percent) stated that their preferred Prime Ministerial choice was Narendra Modi.
Rahul Gandhi was mentioned by a little over one-fourth (27 percent) of the respondents as their preferred choice.
It may be important to record that the question on preferred Prime Ministerial choice has been asked during earlier elections also. This time, there was a six-percentage point decline in the mention of Narendra Modi as the Prime Ministerial choice compared with 2019.
The gap between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi as the preferred Prime Ministerial choice has fallen by eight percentage points.
IMPACT OF PM PREFERENCE
Six in 10 respondents (60 percent) reported that it had an impact on the voting decision. Three-fourths of the respondents who reported voting for the BJP mentioned that it had an impact with as high as four in 10 saying that it had a great impact.
The impact of the leadership factor in determining voter preference was much less among those who voted for the Congress and its allies.
The post-polls surveys have been tapping the response to whether there would have been any change in voting preference if Narendra Modi was not the Prime Ministerial candidate.
When this question was asked in 2014, a little over onefourth (27 percent) of those who voted for the BJP said that they would have changed the way they voted. In 2019, two-thirds (32 percent) took this stand. This time, one fourth (25 percent) said that they would have changed the way they voted if Modi was not the Prime Ministerial candidate. Clearly, the initial ability of the Modi factor to make voters move to the BJP seems to have stagnated over the decade.