In the ongoing period of strained relations between Canada and the U.S., Canadian snowbirds are confronted with a dilemma this January: whether to head south to warmer climates or abstain from visiting a country that has shifted from an ally to a less amicable stance. This decision poses a significant challenge for the many Canadians who collectively own an estimated $60 billion worth of real estate in Florida, a popular destination for those seeking relief from winter’s chill.
Donna Lockhart, a snowbird hailing from Ennismore, Ont., made the choice to sell her condo near Punta Gorda, Fla., due to the escalating anti-Canadian sentiment. Factors such as President Donald Trump’s talk of a 51st state and the ongoing trade disputes, coupled with derogatory remarks from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis towards Canada and Ontario Premier Doug Ford, convinced Lockhart to part ways with her second home in the U.S.
Expressing her concerns in an interview with CBC News, Lockhart emphasized her unease with the current trajectory of the United States and her sense of unwelcome in a place she once cherished. However, as she attempted to list her property, she encountered a hurdle: a surge in fellow Canadians attempting to exit the market. This influx of sellers has adversely impacted the real estate sector in certain areas of Florida, particularly southwest Florida, where the snowbird-driven selling spree has led to an imbalance in supply and demand.
Southwest Florida, spanning from Naples to Tampa Bay along the Gulf Coast, is grappling with a series of housing challenges exacerbated by recent hurricanes and soaring insurance costs. The post-COVID-19 housing boom has tapered off, and with the surge of Canadian sellers, the market conditions have become unfavorable for those looking to sell, according to analysts.
Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com, noted the high inventory levels and declining prices in southwest Florida, attributing part of this trend to the reduced presence of Canadian buyers in the region. The diminishing interest from Canadian buyers is reflected in Realtor.com’s data, indicating a decline in Canadian inquiries for U.S. properties.
Forecasts suggest that housing prices in Cape Coral, North Port, and Tampa are expected to decline further in 2026, following a challenging 2025. This projected drop in prices aligns with the trend of Canadian property owners considering selling their U.S. homes, with political tensions being a primary factor influencing their decisions.
While some Canadians opt to steer clear of the U.S. market, others, like retiree John Willows, are exploring alternative destinations. The sentiment among Canadian property owners reflects a broader trend of disengagement from the U.S. real estate market due to political uncertainties and strained relations between the two countries.
In response to the exodus of Canadian snowbirds, efforts are being made by figures like Democratic congressional candidate Allen Spence to encourage Canadians to maintain their presence in Florida. Spence highlighted the significant economic contributions of Canadian visitors and residents to the local economy, emphasizing the need for continued collaboration and respect between the two nations.
Despite the challenges and uncertainties, Lockhart and her husband have opted to delay selling their property in the hopes of a market rebound in 2027. Lockhart’s decision to weather the current market conditions reflects a mix of financial considerations and a desire to maintain ties with a country that, despite recent strains, holds a shared history and familial bond with Canada.